System theorists (e.g. Meadows, 2008) tell us that one of the most important (and often overlooked) features of any system is the delay function. How long does it take to detect a change that is acting on the system from outside (or inside)? How long does it take to share information with other sectors of the system about this change? How long does it take to act upon the information that has been received and shared? In the case of COVID-19 (and other viruses) a delay of even one day can be devastating. The ball no longer oscillates. It moves into the new valley (infecting residents of this second valley at a high rate).
There is more to say here about the movement of the ball (and the virus) down the new valley. When the ball begins to move down one of the valleys, it usually doesn’t roll directly down the center of the valley. Rather, because it entered the valley from an angle (having oscillated among several options before entering the valley), it rolls up the side of one of the valley’s ridges. The ball then corrects itself by rolling back across the floor of the valley and up the other ridge of the valley—while continuing to move down the valley. Ideally, those people who are residing in this second valley make quick, yet orderly adjustments and minor changes at this point. They are agile, moving in a self-correcting fashion. This is all well and good—provided that the system is operating in an optimal manner, with abundant agility. Leaders are making thoughtful decisions in a slow, measured manner (Kahneman, 2011).
Tragically, this is not the way things operate in many valleys. What happens when the system is stressed, and levels of anxiety are high? What takes place when there is an invading enemy (such as COVID-19) that is uncaring about the welfare of people living in the valley and is itself quite agile (and invisible). Under these conditions, the natural swings of the ball back and forth down the valley can trigger even more anxiety. This leads to fast, “knee-jerk” reactions–what behavioral economists call the reliance on inappropriate but convenient “heuristics”. The ball often swings back and forth even more violently—and may move to yet another valley. This means that the disfunction of one community or society can result in the virus spreading elsewhere. The blame as well as the virus spreads and intensifies. A perfect storm takes place, and we are facing a full- blown, globally destructive pandemic.
What does it look like in a system that experiences the movement of the ball into its own valley? Everyone knows that something terrifying has just come to their organization, community, society. Pretty soon things are in disarray. Something is about to happen. Unfortunately, one can only speculate on what will happen under these conditions of disarray or chaos. The oscillations of the ball are unpredictable (as is the spread of the virus). When the ball is swinging widely from one ridge to the other ridge, it has as great a chance of moving over the top of the left ridge into the adjacent valley as it does of moving over the top of the right ridge into that adjacent valley.
Most of the members of a system (organization, community, society) don’t really know much about (or perhaps even care much about) either of the adjacent valleys. There is always hope that the ball will continue to roll down the current valley without much oscillation or uncertainty. If it does go to another valley then perhaps it will never return to our valley. Someone else will have to deal with the virus—it is no longer our problem.
Clearly, the ball is not done with the change process and the virus has not discontinued its spread to other communities and regions. The oscillation in any one valley can be attributed, at least at times, to the anxiety and inappropriate actions that have been taken. At other times, the oscillation can take place because the rate of change (speed of the ball) is simply too great for the valley (society) to handle–the faster the speed, the wider the swings The ball may have swung too far and actually rolled up over the top of the ridge into the adjacent valley.
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