Kevin Weitz, Psy.D. and William Bergquist, Ph.D.
In some ways this is a very short book about the crisis of expertise. In other ways this is a rather long book for it delves into the deep recesses of the crisis, offers suggestions regarding ways to find personal and collective expertise and practical suggestions regarding what to do right now in the midst of the anxiety-filled crisis of expertise. We have conceived of this book as offering a multitude of perspectives and practices – it is a Swiss Army knife with many tools that hopefully yield both insights and guidance for facing the challenges of expertise and belief.
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This is a book about the unique challenges that leaders (and all of us) face in our mid-21st Century world. Challenges that we face regarding knowledge and information are great. The experts who try to make sense of and help us address these challenges are often rightly or wrongly suspected. In the last section of this book, we suggest ways in which we can personally and collectively find our own wisdom. Finally, in an afterword, we provide some guidance regarding how professional coaches and consultants might assist us in addressing the crises of expertise and belief.
Here is a summary description of the concepts to be addressed in each of the four sections in this book, as well as in each of the twenty three chapters and afterword.
It is important to note that this book is by and large apolitical. The authors have tried to engage no political agenda, but use a number of well publicized examples that demonstrate key points made.
Section One
Making the Case and Framing the Inquiry: Responsible Belief in a World of Fabricated Expertise
We begin our exploration of expertise and belief by visiting a world in which expertise is often wrongly applied, information manipulated, conspiracy theories rampant and in which leaders and experts are fallible. This is the state of our current world. It is a world that is not easily navigated.
Chapter One –A Crisis in Expertise and Leadership
“Are we all stupid?” This first chapter focuses on why we (especially as lay-people) are often blatantly ignorant on many topics of importance. More importantly, we are unaware of our ignorance, and therefore much more susceptible to misinformation and negative influence from malevolent individuals. There is an important phenomenon in our modern digital world: information – and misinformation – is rapidly accessible. As a result, lay-people are especially susceptible to thinking they know a lot about a particular topic, while unknowingly being woefully ignorant or misinformed about the subject. This mis-informed sense of knowledge is sometimes accompanied by a zealous (and sometimes aggressive) defense of their incompetence.
Chapter Two – What is an Expert and what is Expertise?
Most of us are heavily dependent on experts! We rely on them for guidance on medical issues, financial investments, who to vote for amongst many other day-to-day decisions. But what is a true expert and how do we decide that an individual meets a certain standard for us to trust her advice? Also, if the individual does indeed meet a standard that qualifies her as an expert, what do we do if this person provides advice on a topic outside of their area of expertise? Indeed, what is considered “expertise” in the first place? This chapter attempts to provide answers to these questions.
Chapter Three – Experts and Leaders are Fallible – And Sometimes Manipulative
We turn in this chapter to the other side of the ledger: those who provide information or guide the use of information. Leaders who attempt to predict the future make mistakes. What tends to worsen these situations and make them more dangerous is that people with the most knowledge (and with narcissistic tendencies) can tend to emerge as leaders. They influence people around them. These leaders can sometimes develop a sense of infallibility and hubris, surrounding themselves with sycophants that believe everything these leaders utter. This is a dangerous combination.
We are living through a period in our history where people are dying (mainly because of the Covid pandemic). Many of them could be saved if they followed the advice of medical experts and engaged some fairly simple techniques and practices. While we may think this is a problem manifested by the pandemic, it is not – the problem of distrusting experts has a long history and numerous causes. Experts are fallible, and laypeople are often mis-informed, or in some cases blatantly ignorant on certain important topics. Our society requires awareness of our collective ignorance—as well as rules and guidelines for more constructive engagement between experts and laypeople.
In this chapter we further explore the notion that we humans are often unaware of why and how we think, feel and behave. Our unconscious biases and behavioral drivers or triggers (heuristics) are largely unknown to us–leading to beliefs and decision-making that can be damaging to oneself and others. These biases and resulting behaviors serve as the foundation for our analysis of the crises of expertise and belief that we find to be pervasive in our mid-21st Century society.
Chapter Four – The VUCA Plus Challenge – An Environment that Multiplies Distrust and Blind Trust
Leaders operating in 21st Century societies often must deal with major challenges associated with the anxiety experienced by members of their society. This anxiety can be induced in many ways—and there are multiple sources of societal anxiety. We often seem to be stranded on a boat that is caught up in the “perfect storm” of societal anxiety. Perhaps the easiest way to sum up the multiple sources of anxiety is to evoke the now commonly used acronym: VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity). We add two other conditions to this list of anxiety sources. These are turbulence and contradiction—producing what we label a VUCA-Plus environment.
The challenges in a VUCA-Plus environment involve both determining what is “real” (our view of the world) and how one predicts and makes decisions based on an assessment of this elusive reality. Leadership and decision-making in our 21st Century societies has become even more challenging given the big VUCA-Plus waves that have been hitting us: covid, expansion of Internet delivered versions of reality and rapidly expanding role of artificial intelligence. These waves test our ability to trust experts and the information they deliver.
Chapter Five – The Dangerous Influence of Conspiracy Theories
In this chapter we face the issue of conspiracy head on. What has turned a loose collection of people who support an illegitimate expert and his flawed expertise into a tight-knit enclave that found threat, danger and enemies everywhere? What makes many people believe that they must protect that which (they believe) is true, virtuous and life-affirming? What, in other words, creates a conspiracy? If we are to better understand the crises of expertise and belief, we need to appreciate the complex and powerful dynamics associated with how large groups of our population begin to believe conspiracy theories and often take self-defeating action based on these flawed beliefs.
Conspiracy theories result from the basic human orientation as a social animal to detect and explain threats—and specifically from the human tendency to categorize the world into ingroups and outgroups. There is a corresponding desire to protect one’s ingroup from powerful outgroups that might be dangerous. While this process is innate in humans, and has a survival component, it can also yield major negative outcomes for both in-groups and outgroups—particularly when people’s susceptibility to conspiracy theories is manipulated by unscrupulous leaders for their own benefit. A key question is addressed: how do some unscrupulous leaders undermine other leaders and experts in out-groups who put forward apposing ideas?
Chapter Six – The Truth About Lies – How Lies and Misinformation Undermine Trust
Misinformation has become prolific. In this chapter we focus on how some influential people use language to propagate misinformation and lies for their own benefit. Furthermore, how it is possible that so many people actually believe them? When lying is used to manipulate and deceive to the detriment of others – even entire societies – lies and misinformation take on a Machiavellian purpose and outcome. There are not only purposeful liars and those who generate misinformation who operate in isolation, but also settings in which personal and organization-wide lying is fostered.
This chapter has to do with these settings. We ask a disturbing question: why do some people (in fact many people) generally reject the best expert information available and science-based guidance from experts and leaders? We are concerned with people who believe (sometimes vociferously) outlandish and often bazaar conspiracy theories to their own detriment and that of others around them.
In this chapter we consider the ways in which misinformation holds the potential to put people in danger and (in numerous cases) causes the loss of life. There are many reasons why some people disbelieve experts and leaders in various fields. They find many reasons to believe outlandish explanations from people who are not offering valid expertise but are instead seeking power and influence. Why are faux “experts” often successful who harbor Machiavellian tendencies or are guided by nefarious intent?
Chapter Seven – Pants on Fire – The Truth About Liars and Their Lies
Children know all about purposeful lying and “pants on fire.” We wish to assign a word to this act of purposeful lying. We call it Cheating and propose that Cheating is integral to the crises of expertise and belief. This challenge of Cheating leads us to question the source of information and perspectives that we are asked to accept. People lie and get away with it. We ask in frustration: who are the cheaters and why do they lie? It is one thing to bend the truth a bit. It is another thing to purposefully lie. What then is the purpose? And when do we cheat? Is cheating and lying ever necessary or positive? Are there forgivable (soft) cheats and unforgiveable (hard) cheats?
In this chapter, we have devoted some attention to describing the dynamics of cheating and consider ways in which one might work with a cheater as a coach (or therapist or counsellor). We explore several different levels of cheating and lying (hard cheats and the hard lies, alongside soft cheats and soft lies). We also identify different motives for cheating, environments for cheating and the impact of cheating on individuals and organizations.
There is also the matter of working with and assisting those people who are cheaters. We wonder if there is a viable (and ethical) outcome of a potential or ongoing supportive relationship when cheating is discovered or revealed. Is there a role to be played by a skilled and experienced professional coach or consultant in this quite challenging setting?
Chapter Eight – People Most Susceptible to Manipulation – The Authoritarian Personality
Why is it that some people believe “crazy stuff” (also known as “bullshit” as described by some researchers)? This chapter concerns the psychological drivers that underpin why certain personality characteristics make some people more likely to blindly follow dominant leaders, hang onto every word they utter (sometimes to their own detriment) and reject irrefutable facts.
Chapter Nine – Technological Acceleration that Advances the Crises
In this chapter we consider the possibility that our world is entering an era of Artificial Intelligence (AI), with facts primarily being conveyed, manipulated and used by “machines” that are not human. Most importantly, as artificial intelligence along with deepfake technology continues to advance, the risks they pose are becoming more evident and in the opinions of some “experts”, threatening human existence. While these technologies have the potential to revolutionize various fields, including medicine, entertainment and communication, they also have the potential to do significant harm. “Facts”, as we know them, might soon be obliterated.
The more advanced the technology becomes, the more it poses a risk to humanity—at least according to some influential “experts”. There is already evidence of AI being used for nefarious purposes, such as the development of autonomous weapons, which could trigger wars and conflicts. There is also the prospect of social media bots being created which could be used to spread misinformation and propaganda.
Moreover, as AI systems become more complex, it is difficult to predict how they will behave in certain situations. There is a risk that AI could become pervasive and uncontrollable, leading to unintended consequences. AI could be used to manipulate people and organizations, causing chaos and destabilizing society. We describe multiple sources in this chapter that speak to these risks and the impact of emerging technologies on both expertise and belief, while also exploring the more intimate connection to be found between ourselves and technologies that are “embedded” within us.
Section Two
Down the Rabbit Hole into Wonderland
Section One focused on some of the observable, practical and directly impactful aspects of the Crises of Expertise and Belief. It also touched on a description of people who tend to believe “crazy stuff” and the psychological drivers that foster these behaviors. Section Two delves into some of the deeper history, research and theoretical underpinnings of these dynamics. We refer to this Section as going “Down the Rabbit Hole into Wonderland” because – in most cases – it is fantastical if not simply interesting to those who want to know more.
Chapter Ten – Residents of Wonderland I: The Believers (Part One)
The 21st Century expert –and the leader of contemporary organizations—are often facing a perennial force of resistance and negativity. This force is the authoritarian personality that is to be found among a disturbingly large proportion of people—particularly large during periods of pervasive anxiety (such as those found in VUCA-Plus environments). It is the authoritarian who is most susceptible to influence from unreliable sources. It is the authoritarian who is most likely to find or build a Bubble of Belief which very little of the actual world is allowed to penetrate.
In this chapter we examine the people in our society who may be most susceptible to lies and reconstructed reality—and are most likely to bring about the crisis of legitimate expertise. In this first chapter we attend specifically to the nature of and impact of authoritarian perspectives among members of 21st Century societies. We explore the original studies of authoritarian personalities in California as well as precursors, refinements and criticisms of these major studies.
Chapter Eleven – Residents of Wonderland II: The Believers (Part Two)
During stressful times (economic recessions, pandemics, uncontrolled immigration, threat of war etc.), certain people experience “status anxiety (which) produces authoritarian (thinking) which produces repression of faults and shortcomings and of aggression against authority, which is then projected onto minorities and outsiders”. We focus on this matter of pervasive anxiety (Angst). When we are considering individualized anxiety, then containment of the anxiety is often to be found in personal defenses (such as regression or denial). The authoritarian is an individual for whom personal defenses are often embedded in ethnocentrism. Generalized prejudice has become a structured aspect of their personality. These individuals are more likely to believe misinformation and conspiracy theories propagated by influential people within their in-groups.
When Angst as a shared source of anxiety is widely found, then the container often resides in their respective right-wing conservative or left-wing liberal groups. A collective “corner” is provided by their group where one can hide from the onslaught of Angst. It seems that Angst is not only contained in a collective manner but also contained by collective action. In this chapter we not only focus on the impact of pervasive anxiety on character structure and update the analysis of authoritarian personalities, but also consider how this rigid character structure relates to our primary concern in this book about expertise and belief.
Chapter Twelve – Residents of Wonderland III: The Collective Believers
A powerful process called collusion operates when the expert and advice-follower dance together in creating an illusion of knowledge and foresight. Collusion is a complex and often subtle process, typically involving all parties in a relationship or group. Even if a participant is not actively involved in the collusion, the mere acquiescence to the collusion will exacerbate the collusive process.
In this chapter, we first offer a positive perspective regarding collective thinking. This is collective learning in organizations and is founded on the distinctive (often cutting edge) lessons learned and insights offered by individuals in the organization and those who provide “expert” advice to the organization. There is also the occasional breakthrough learning and insights gained by a team or task force in the organization, as well as the acceptance and use of expert advice that is “out-of-the-box.”. There is also the negative perspective with regard to collective thinking. Side-by-side with shared learning and collective insights is the intensive resistance to new learning (especially that offered by the expert). There are not only “learning organizations” that thrive under conditions of collaboration, but also “stupid organizations” that are caught in collusive dynamics.
With this concern about collective learning and stupidity in place, we turn to the fundamental nature of collaboration and competition. We then turn to an analysis of the roots of both collaboration and collusion. We conclude by considering the matter of collective narcissism. We consider the particularly powerful and often negative way in which collaboration and collusion are interwoven. Expertise is often abused in a collective narcissistic setting.
Chapter Thirteen – Beliefs in Wonderland I: The Fleeting Facts (Part One)
All (or at least most) perspectives on the nature of “facts” are concerned with one very ambitious undertaking: understanding the nature of reality. However, there are many different turns and pathways that one can take on the way to this understanding. In this chapter, we turn to the work done by a writer and fact finder as they battle with two different versions of reality. Their struggles (displayed in both a book and theatrical play) provides the foundation for our consideration of the nature and construction of “facts.”
We propose that there are two interrelated dimensions that help to discriminate among differing definitions and meanings associated with the word “Fact”. One dimension concerns the static or dynamic nature of one’s notion about being. Is “being” a noun or a verb? Are we talking about an object or about a process? The second dimension concerns the basic assumption that it is, or is not, possible to ultimately identify the basic nature of being—in other words, to accurately describe and validate a description of reality. Those who believe this description is possible are called “objectivists.” We offer a four-cell model based on the intersection between these two dimensions.
Chapter Fourteen – Beliefs in Wonderland II: The Fleeting Facts (Part Two)
Experts are in trouble. And our whole society is in trouble. We don’t know what to believe and our experts often seem to have only a tenuous grasp on reality. These concerns are societal products of late 20th and early 21st Century thought. Furthermore, there is a much earlier source: the voice of Socrates as heard through the writing of Plato. Socrates (via Plato) offered a critique of ways in which we view reality and how we should view the role of “experts” through a widely known allegory of shadows being caste on the wall of a cave. Those living in this cave believe that the shadows are reality and that those providing interpretations of these shadows are truly “experts” and purveyors of truth and reality.
Given that we might be living in a Platonic cave, what should be done about Facts? Is it acceptable to embrace something that never existed – something that has been created by someone for their own purposes, while implying that it is Truth?? We turn in this chapter to a brief recounting of the history of Facts at three different eras in the operation of human societies. With this historical base in place, we consider how Facts (accurate or fabricated) are being used. We conclude with the presentation of some strategies and tools that can be engaged to increase the chances that Facts have been accurately assessed.
Chapter Fifteen – Beliefs in Wonderland III: Cultural and Psychodynamic Perspectives
The focus of our analysis extends beyond an exploration of the basic cultural foundations of lie-based group and societal perspectives and actions. As we suggest throughout this book, the mid-21st Century world is one that is saturated with volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). VUCA is, in turn, swirling in a white-water world of turbulence and strained in a world of profound contradiction. VUCA becomes VUCA-Plus. This chapter delves into the six cultures that operate in most societies and in organizations in which the crisis can emerge and fester.
Chapter Sixteen — Helping Believers Stay Out of or Leave Wonderland I: Experts and the Diffusion of Innovative Ideas and Valid Information
In Chapter Two we defined what an “expert” looks like, how to identify such an individual and what “expertise” is. In this chapter we provide greater detail about experts, especially as they can assist us in staying out of or leaving Wonderland. More generally, we consider ways in which experts can help us address the acceptance of new ideas and innovations—and the resistance of those who live in their own Bubble of Belief.
Experts often offer new ideas to those they are seeking to influence. The old world and old ideas are no longer of great value. Something new is present or on the horizon. As an “expert” I am the one to introduce this innovation; furthermore, I keep ahead of other experts by offering the new idea before they do. This might mean that I am offering an innovation that is absurd or even dangerous. I might instead be offering an innovation that is indeed valid and potentially of great use.
The problem is that I can’t get anyone to accept this innovation or even take it for a “test run.” The resistance to my new idea is great. It is indeed hard to learn how to do something differently if we have learned how to do it successfully the “old way.” The crises of expertise and belief often reside in the diffusion of an innovative idea. These interwoven crises are exacerbated in a VUCA-Plus world that is saturated with competing ideas that contradict one another and are constantly being revised, removed, or reconsidered. Given all of this, an appreciation of innovation diffusion is critical for both the expert and the consumer of new ideas.
In this chapter we focus on this diffusion of innovation and its implications for the offering of expertise. Making use of a model offered by Everett Rodgers, we identify the major challenges for experts and leaders to be found in meeting the concerns and better understanding the perspectives and concerns residing in five different populations. Each of these populations is to be found in all societies and formed around all major innovative ideas and practices.
Chapter Seventeen – Helping Believers Stay Out of or Leave Wonderland II: Finding Personal Expertise Through a Community of Thought and Feeling within Our Own Self
There are many ways in which to enhance the generation and use of legitimate and timely expertise. In this chapter we offer several pathways to expertise that reside inside each of us. We are ourselves a rich source of expertise regarding many matters. While we don’t always fully appreciate this expertise and often distort or make poor use of personal expertise, it is there for our use – thanks to our capacity to process at multiple levels in our brain at the same time, and thanks to the expansion in the human brain of an advanced mental processing system (the prefrontal cortex).
Put simply, we host a community of thoughts and feelings that reside in our own psyche. This reservoir of expertise is often not fully known or appreciated by us. However, it must be known and assessed if we are to be effective personally in addressing the challenges (and crises of expertise) that are to be found in mid-21st Century life. We must be discerning, thoughtful consumers of existing outside expertise and must find the expertise within our own base of knowledge and intuition.
Chapter Eighteen – Helping Believers Stay Out of or Leave Wonderland III: Creating Collective Expertise Through Collaborative Communities of Heart
In this chapter we continue to explore ways in which to enhance the generation and use of legitimate and timely expertise. We now look outside ourselves and offer several collective pathways to expertise. In doing so, we continue to address a central question: how do we improve not just the quality of expertise being delivered in mid-21st century societies, but also access to and acceptance of this high-quality expertise?
We propose that quality is improved with a diversity of input. Both access and acceptance are improved with a broad-based collaboration among a wide variety of communities. What is the nature of such a venture in collaboration among diverse communities? How does this collaboration ensure that expertise is being created—or at least increase the probability that it is being created? What processes ensure that the expertise being created and shared is credible and of high quality? These questions are best addressed through the use of several collaborative tools and strategies—which are described and reviewed in this chapter.
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Section Three
Doing Something About the Crises Right Now
In Section One we focused on observable, practical and directly impactful aspects of the Crises of Expertise and Belief, while in Section Two we delved into the fantastical life being lived in the Wonderland of expertise and belief. Now, in this third section, we get down to business and suggest ways in which to escape from wonderland. What are strategies and tools to be used in emerging from the rabbit hole into a world that is based on a valid perspective of reality and a viable set of practices needed to address the anxiety-ridden VUCA-Plus challenges of mid-21st Century life.
Chapter Nineteen – Doing Something About Our Anxiety
VUCA-Plus produces anxiety at both the individual and collective level. Furthermore, it seems that anxiety is quite contagious. One anxious person in an organization (or group) can readily spread this anxiety to everyone else with whom they associate. This is particularly powerful when that individual is an expert or leader. This chapter focuses on methods to reduce anxiety.
Chapter Twenty– Doing Something About Our Ignorance
In this chapter we deal with the notion that most of us are unaware of what influences our thinking and our decision-making. Behavioral scientists identify something that they call Heuristics, which are mental shortcuts or “rules of thumb” that we develop over our lifetime. Heuristics are essential for us to make quick decisions without the need for more complex and slow contemplative processing and decision-making. These Heuristics serve as the foundation for what we have frequently identified as fast thinking (contrasting with slow thinking). While fast thinking can assist us in navigating our daily lives, this process can become a problem when it is based on biased or bad science or information. Being aware of how heuristic operate in each of us is important if we are to be self-aware of how we respond to our environment, especially VUCA-Plus.
Chapter Twenty One – Doing Something About Our Thinking
Decades of research have shown that professionals (experts) who have learned to avoid biases in their area of expertise often struggle to apply what they have learned to different fields. For example, weather forecasters have learned to avoid over-confidence in predicting weather patterns—but are just as overconfident as anyone else when asked to apply their “expertise” to matters concerning appropriate responses to changing weather conditions.
This chapter focuses on techniques and methods that help us and others shift our thoughts and resulting behaviors in a manner that is reasonable and aligned with a realistic assessment of our current situation. The role played by a personal coach or organizational consultant is valuable in these circumstances. This role is particularly of value if and when the coach or consultant is alerting expert leaders that they are straying outside of their areas of expertise and that well understood biases can creep in unknowingly.
Chapter Twenty Two – Doing Something About the Vail of Misinformation and Lies
How do we best confront personal, group and cultural lies? How do we pierce the veil of misinformation and lies. This is quite a challenge given the many avenues are open for misinformation and lies to prevail in our personal lives, the groups of which we are members, the societies in which we live—and even the unconscious peremptory world that swirls within us. We suggest that some of these challenges can best be met by acknowledging that there are three domains in which lies and misinformation dwell. These are the domain of Information (where misinformation about the world can prevail), the domain of Intentions (where misinformation regarding viable goals and motives can prevail) and the domain of Ideas (where lies about the practicality of specific strategies and actions can prevail). In this chapter, we explore ways in which to work effectively within these three domains.
Chapter Twenty Three – Doing Something About the Contradictions
This chapter focuses on a strategy and tool called Polarity-Management that could be of value in addressing the challenges associated with authoritarianism, ethnocentrism, and rigidity. Polarity management can be used to confront the fundamental crises of expertise and belief of our time—issues that split us into deeply divided camps and make it hard, if not impossible to expand our region of expertise and belief. In each camp, there are no valid (unbiased) or useful experts other than those who are aligned with this camp. There is no authority and no credible criteria for evaluation other than those fully vetted by and affiliated with those residing in and leading this camp. The strategy and tool we are providing has arrived in the midst of VUCA-Plus. While Polarity Management relates to all six of the VUCA-Plus conditions, it is particularly effective in addressing issues associated with Contradiction—the conditions on which we have focused in this chapter.
Afterword–Role of the Personal Coach and Organizational Consultant
In this Afterword we extend our exploration of the crises of expertise and belief by considering ways in which personal coaches and organizational consultants can help each of us address the challenges inherent in the axiom: “nobody knows anything.” At the start of this chapter, we focus on “blind spots.” Many people – not just leaders – are often blatantly ignorant and unaware of their lack of knowledge on specific subjects, while (sometimes) vehemently advocating that they know a lot.
We also consider “bright lights.” These are the patterns or variations on patterns that provide structures for our personal thoughts and collective organizational practices. How might professional coaches and consultants help leaders overcome ignorance and hubris. How might they assist their clients to become more fully self-aware of their blind spots? How do appreciative coaches and consultants also help their clients identify and appreciate the bright lights and patterns in their life and work?
We conclude by noting the obvious fact that our world is changing. What might not be so obvious is that the patterns must change along with these changes in the world. Change and continuity are intricately interwoven in our mid-21st Century world. At the heart of the matter—and at the heart of this book—is a full appreciation of the sources of personal and collective expertise that can help us address the challenges of change and continuity. These sources can play an important role in the personal and organizational lives of our coaching and consulting clients (and ourselves).
As we note at the end of this afterword:
. . . through slow-thinking and an appreciative perspective, we can find both consistency and agility in our beliefs. There are good and bad ideas, as well as valid and invalid versions of reality. We have only to find the courage within relativism to discover what is good and valid—and to make important decisions regarding our life and work. The assistance of a caring and competent coach should be welcomed. The crises of expertise and belief can be averted.
We conclude our book with this note of optimism.