As adults, we find that the splitting function rarely is adaptivity. In fact, it is potentially dangerous and even self-destructive to our well-being. We are now well-served when we automatically distrust and disbelieve out-groups and their leaders and experts simply because they are not part of our in-group. Similarly, we can trust and believe non-experts (and sometimes charlatans) simply because they are members of our in-group. And there is a downward spiral from there – as Dutch psychologist, Jan-Willem van Prooijen (2018) notes, people who are inclined to distrust other people are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories than people who are inclined to trust other people. Furthermore, people tend to specifically believe in conspiracy theories about groups that are ideologically dissimilar to themselves.
“Conspiracy theory adherence is related to distrust of people in general” (Researchgate.net), and especially scientists and other experts touting information that may contradict an in-groups beliefs. Conspiracy theorists are almost always at odds with experts in the specific field of science involved – for example, going back to 1956, observers noted that science and experts were often powerless at the hands of conspiracy theories. As the Oregonian newspaper noted in 1956 after ten of twelve fluoridation measures across the state were defeated leading to increased tooth decay in towns that banned fluoride in drinking water (Uscinski, 2018b). Of course, we only have to look back to our very recent past where conspiracy theories related to Covid19 have led to the deaths of many thousands of people.
How do conspiracy theories occur?
When there is a crisis, such as a terrorist attack, Covid or a war in Ukraine, and circumstances are rapidly changing and people feel out of control and scared, they are more likely to interpret the changing dynamics as part of a conspiracy by powerful “out-group” people attempting to leverage advantage over them for their own sinister benefits. As circumstances change, so cause-and-effect connections are made in an attempt to understand and make sense of what is unfolding. Psychologists would say that the anxiety associated with a crisis tends to produce defensive protection. If the crisis tends to linger and is not resolved, then the defensive strategy becomes increasing “regressive” (primitive, child-like). Cause-and-effect assessments become distorted, with the cause of crisis being assigned to the “out-group.” Sense-making is framed exclusively as We/They.
As Van Prooijen notes “Conspiracy theories appeal to a basic, dark fear that we all are string puppets under the control of powerful, sinister, and invisible forces. Conspiracy theories refer to hidden, secret, and malignant organizations that influence our lives without us being aware of it… Negative emotions – particularly feelings of fear and uncertainty – form a key causal factor to explain why conspiracy theories are prevalent among large segments of the population. These negative emotions explain why conspiracy theories flourish in the wake of societal crisis situations”.
The risk with these beliefs is that people tend to disbelieve experts and scientists simply because they are seen as members of out-groups – if they are not part of OUR group, they must be part of the threat.
As Uscinski notes (2018a), “Sizable portions of the public reject the science on vaccines, GM foods, fluoride, and climate change due to belief in conspiracy theories. Some conspiracy theories accuse scientists of being involved in a scam to defraud, injure, or kill the public … there exists a sizable distrust of science and scientists”. In most cases, these beliefs are self-defeating in that they potentially harm the believers.
