Messes
There are problems… and then there are big messes! We tend to see many issues in a limited or simplistic way. We attempt to deal with them as if they are puzzles or problems. When that happens in addressing an Essential issue then we are likely to be surprised. Furthermore, we are likely to dig ourselves deeper into the complexity, seriousness, and potential tragedy of the issue being faced. Our polystatic process “ain’t working!” Our predictions lead us astray. When faced with the multi-faced challenges of a pandemic (such as COVID) we are navigating more of a “swamp” rather than a sea. When figuring out where to allocate college funds, we are faced with many related issues that can create a swamp. What about past relationships with our kids? Do we consider the attitudes of our children about “fairness” in family relations or about the worth assigned to a college education? Russell Ackoff (1999) describes this swamp many years ago as a “mess.” Others have identified these messy issues as “wicked problems” or “tangled webs.” Whatever we call this type of issue, we must stay with “messes” that are located in a swamp long enough to achieve real and sustained solution to the uncertain Essential issues we are facing. We can’t avoid making Polystatic predictions and living with the consequences of these predictions.
Messes are to be distinguished from problems in that they don’t just involve multiple elements (a complicated system). They also involved a complex interweaving (tangled web) among these elements (a complex system) (Miller and Page, 2007). Messes are indeed “wicked” when it comes to understanding let alone seeking to predict what is about to occur and finding the “solution” to an Essential issue. Each of the many elements embedded in the mess is connected to each (or most) of the other elements. Uncertainty abounds in large part because these elements have suddenly connected. It is like the complex and powerful processes to be found in nuclear fusion and fission. Perhaps like those scientists who have spent their lifetime being curious about fusion or fission, we can be curious about the messes we face and can apply our set of Essential lenses. Family priorities and patterns of behavior among family members can be intriguing. We can be curious about family dynamics and acknowledge that all families operate in “messy ways.” Most importantly, we can “cut ourselves some slack” when setting up financial priorities and managing important disclosures.
The challenge is every greater. The rugged landscape is shrouded in clouds. Not only can’t we determine which is the tallest mountain and how to navigate in this rugged terrain, we can’t clearly see the mountains through the haze. It is like traveling along the highway leading through the Great Smokey Mountains (in the Eastern USA) Everything (as the name implies) is often “smokey.” The VUCA-Plus condition of Uncertainty is joined with the condition of Ambiguity. The mountains are beautiful—but the beauty is captured in the vague outline of peaks and valleys. VUCA-Plus reigns supreme, with conditions of uncertainty and ambiguity both appearing in full strength when we are confronting a Mess.
What might lead us to be curious? We might wonder what it would look like if the fog cleared. We generate several alternative predictions of what resides on the other side of the fog. We create contingency plans for addressing each of the possible environments that are now shrouded. Do we find out what this environment was like before there was fog? Is information about pre-fog conditions still relevant? We might even be curious about the source of the fog. Is someone or some institution benefiting from the fog? Should we direct our attention to the fog-maker(s) rather than that which resides in the fog? However, we wish to explore the landscape with and without the fog, it is most important that we acknowledge the inevitability of making some mistakes in the midst of the mess. Our predictions will not always be accurate. Our actions will not always yield desired outcomes. Some self-forgiveness is requisite when addressing any mess. Curiosity is only possible with the prospect of this self-forgiveness regarding the potential of making a mess of the messes we are facing.
