Home Concepts Decison Making & Problem Solving Finding Essence in a VUCA-Plus World I: Patterns, Self-Organization and Illumination

Finding Essence in a VUCA-Plus World I: Patterns, Self-Organization and Illumination

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Identification of Variations

What about variations in these patterns? We find variations at each of the levels we have just mentioned. It is through variations in the patterns of organizations that we find creativity. Ralph Stacey (1996) writes extensively about this creative dynamic in organizations, noting that organizations grow and adapt precisely because they are not orderly. Systems survive (and thrive) in a specific niche precisely because they are not fully adaptive and therefore cannot dominate their niche. We see what happens when one organization builds a monopoly in a specific sector of our society and when one leader dominates the decision-making processes of an organization. Some sloppiness and competition are required to not only keep us honest but also to allow for creativity and change.

What do the variations look like in organizations? When listening to a sonata-form symphony we are often unaware of the subtle variations that are occurring—unless we are trained in musical composition and have a musical score in front of us. Similarly, we are often unaware of variations in organizational patterns unless we have a “trained ear” or have organizational documents to review while observing the operations of the organization.

First, we look for the obvious and seemingly trivial clues regarding variations. These are the surprises that occur in the organization: an embarrassing statement made by someone in a meeting (that may be revealing a truth about the organization), a miscommunication that occurs between two leaders (that may indicate two or more contradictory truths in the organization), a set of contradictory decisions or actions taken by two different subsystems (e.g. a commitment made by the marketing department that can’t be fulfilled by the production department).

Second, we look for emotionally charged events. Disrupted patterns will inevitably generate emotional responses: anxiety, disappointment, embarrassment, anger, hope. We can begin our investigation of variations by looking for emotional reactions that exceed those or differ from those occurring on a regular basis in the organization (the regular emotional reactions being part of the organization’s pattern). Once we identify the unique emotional reactions, then we seek out the events that generated these reactions. A variation of the pattern often underlies and has generated the emotional reaction.

Third, we look for rogue events. These are big things that occur in the organization and often serve as the base for the powerful narratives that are to be found in all organizations. These are the narratives about heroic actions, foolish events, a moment of courage or honesty, the critical and unanticipated decision made at the crossroads in the life of the organization, the success of an underdog (person or department) in the organization.  An event is rogue if it is totally unexpected and often if it is preceded by a set of very predictable events.

Nasim Taleb (2010) uses the term Black Swan when describing those remarkable and powerful events that have caught our world by surprise. We all know that swans are white—but what happens when a black swan is discovered. Similarly, how could we have predicted the Arab Spring, the election of an African American as president, or the rapid expansion in the global use and influence of the Internet. As Taleb has noted, rogue events are not only unanticipated—these events are also often governed by power laws (exponential increases) that move quickly from small to large. Within organizations, small variations in the major pattern of the organization can lead to major changes in certain, unanticipated ways. These are the rogue events and the emergence of a whole flock of Black Swans.

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