Home Concepts Decison Making & Problem Solving Searching for Serenity in a VUCA-Plus World

Searching for Serenity in a VUCA-Plus World

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One might wonder if this core can be found in basic religious beliefs or in an alliance with some authoritarian figure. Do we find balance when guided by a set of firm religious tenants or a strong dictatorial leader? We would suggest that this rarely is the case, for this leader and these beliefs, alliances and tenants are much too rigid. They operate like canoes that can only move in one direction (forward). Furthermore, the person operating the canoe has a single-bladed paddle that requires one to shift the paddle from one side of the canoe to the other side when navigating the white water. One is working with a “one-dimensional” tool when counterbalancing and adjusting to changes in the water’s direction. This makes navigation very difficult. Similar limitations are also found when leading an organization or community through white water. Single-edged solutions simply don’t do the trick in turbulence environments.

By contrast, the person navigating a kayak engages a two-bladed paddle that makes counterbalancing and shifting directions much easier.  Similarly, a multi-dimensional tool makes the navigation of white water in an organization less challenging.  Successful white-water leaders engage a variety of tactics and strategies when navigating the white water. At times they stick to tried-and-true procedures, while at other times they might rely on new procedures that have been generated and tested in a skunk-works. The leader might look for a competitive advantage by venturing out to a new international market or they might look for a collaborative advantage by joining a consortium started by one of their competitors. The term Agility can readily be applied to the successful operations of a kayak—and to the successful leadership of a mid-21st Century organization. This term does not readily apply to someone or some organization that is caught up in the vice-grips of a rigid religious belief or authoritarian rule.

The Polarities of Turbulence

As I have noted, the aspect of turbulence exists in the “white water” world where four patterns of change intermingle: rapid change, cyclical change, non-change (stagnation) and chaotic change. A Left Column perspective would focus on Centering in the midst of these multiple conditions of change. This “kayak” perspective primarily concerns a search for and finding the core, orienting place that provides one with balance and direction. Agility plays a central role with movement of the double-bladed paddle back and form.

The Right Column perspective focuses on Forethought in the midst of multiple conditions of change. From this perspective, we must “lean” and “learn” forward by allowing for and participating in multiple points of balance and direction in our work and life. For the kayaker, this means looking “downstream” in order to prepare for the upcoming challenges presented by the white-water river they are navigating. What might be found around the next bend in the river and how does my current position on the river prepare me for what might await me around the bend? Kayakers and leaders do contingency planning when navigating their turbulent environment.

We can address this polarity in an appropriate and effective manner (in keeping with the white-water metaphor) by focusing proximally (up close) on our centering and at the same time focusing distally (at a distance) on what might await us. Specifically, this means using the centering—and the agility—to think outside of the immediate box and to “lean into the future” (Bergquist and Mura, 2011) with forethought.  Otto Scharmer (2019) offers a Theory U way of thinking about and acting in a world of turbulence. He writes about “learning into the future.” In order to do this anticipatory learning, Scharmer suggests that we must first seek to change the system as it now exists. Scharmer is emulating John Dewey’s suggestion that we only understand something when we give it a kick and observe it’s reaction. However, Scharmer goes further than Dewey. He suggests that we must examine and often transform our own way of thinking in the world—which requires both centering and forethought—if this change is to be effective and if we are to learn from this change in preparation for the future.

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