Over the past decade I have frequently encouraged planning teams to identify and address probable problems and barriers associated with the project or organizational change that is about to be mounted—this is contingency and pre-mortem planning. However, I often take the contingency planning and pre-mortem processes a step further as a constructive way in which to find stability in the midst of a volatile world. I invite them to identify some “black swans” that might impact on their project or change. The shade of black can vary–with both unexcepted positive events lighting the way and darker negative events posing a major challenge.
When I am working with a nonprofit organization these rogue events often involve surprising new sources of money or loss of financial resources. Unanticipated changes in public policy regarding funding priorities are introduced when I am working with a government organization, while dramatic shifts in the size or focus of a competitor is common when I am working with a corporation. I even introduce some more humorous or “far out” black swans just to lighten the conversation and encourage creative problem solving.
The swan might be a pill that significantly increases our intelligence or it could be the landing of friendly aliens on Planet Earth. I sometimes suggest that the black swan is the elevation of one member of the planning team to the position of Emperor (commanding all operations in the world). The key factor is the encouragement of agility rather stability in the midst of volatility. Planning must be contingency-based and begun (premortem) before a project is initiated. Strategies for securing stability such as the use of buffers, history, retired employees and trim tabs must be viewed as adjunctive to a direct confrontation of the stress and challenges associated with Volatility.
Uncertainty and Certainty
Evolution and adaptation to an evolving environment requires variance and uncertainty (anomalies). While we may seek to find a stable and predictable environment in our mid-21st Century life, we are liking instead to find a lack of continuity and resulting lack of clarity regarding what is going to happen from day to day in our life. There is an important systemic impact: it is hard to plan for the future or even for one or two days from now. Nothing seems permanently to be in place. At a personal level, we must keep schedule and expectations quite flexible.
The Polarity of Uncertainty
Uncertainty refers to the lack of predictability, the increasing prospects for surprising, “disruptive” changes that often overwhelm our awareness, understanding and ability to cope with events. In this case, the Left Column perspective on Uncertainty would center on the Assimilation of changes into existing framework. This perspective concerns making sense of and finding meaning in what is occurring in the present reality. By contrast, a Right Column perspective on Uncertainty would center on Accommodation to changes by adjusting or reworking existing framework. This perspective concerns learning from and adapting to what is occurring in the present reality.
The appropriate management of this polarity would involve the creation and maintenance of a learning organization (Argyris and Schön, 1978). Emphasis is placed in such an organization (or community) on the learning that takes place after either a success or failure in addressing issues associated with uncertain conditions. The polarity is addressed by recognizing that learning always involves structures and concepts that already exist (assimilation). We don’t learn if the incoming experience is totally alien to us. However, as we bring in and incorporate new information, the existing structures must change (accommodation). New experiences simply bounce off us (they are dismissed) if we are unwilling to accommodate. A joint assimilation/accommodation process is required.
Download Article 1K Club
